Week 35 results
This post is slightly longer than usual as it’s the culmination of a 35 week diary, if you’re new to Advantage Gambling / Matched Betting I suggest you check out some of the other pages on the site to learn how it works, if you just want some inspiration feel free to read on. We started the diary in October 2015 with Week 1 and since then have documented every offer we did while making £5,000 profit from a £250 investment. You can read all the diary entries here.
Regular diary readers will probably guess where the bulk of this weeks profits came from! This week we did 1 x Virtue Fusion reload (£10 from Beaky Bingo which bust), 1 x Bright bingo £50 reload (which also bust) and then completed 6 x 15network reloads.
A little luck and some decent variance meant the 6 reloads gave a healthy £336 profit. Once all these results are added to the £4,720 balance from last week we get £4,996
This diary was set up to document making £5,000 profit from £250 investment (investment excluded from profit and it was first thing on Sunday morning that we checked the Bingo results and realised we were close to the target. This left us with a decision to make, do we follow the usual technique, and play more bingo to hit 5k or do we use some different techniques.
Being so close I really wanted to hit it this week so we used a technique that I don’t think we’ve done at any point during the diary and did some Horse Arb’ing.
We logged into my oddsmonkey account and found a decent 7/6.6 horse racing Arb at Stan James, by placing a £100 back we guaranteed £4.20 whatever the result. If we weren’t coming to the end of the diary I probably wouldn’t have gone down this route. Stan James are incredibly easy to arb but also have a tendency to limit (or close accounts), I prefer to keep accounts intact for future bonuses but as the diary has reached a conclusion it’s less of an issue if the account is lost.
The £4.20 profit from “John Monash” meant that finally we’ve cleared the £5,000 profit that we set out to make when we started all those weeks ago.
Overall it’s take 35 weeks but there was about a month period when I was traveling where we made very little.
With hindsight we definitely could have made it quicker, much of the profits came from Bingo, especially 15network but there are loads of ongoing bookmaker offers that we could have taken advantage of to hit the target significantly quicker. A friend of the site has followed a very different approach and I’m hoping to be able to share a guest post from him fairly soon showing an alternative method of making this kind of profit.
Here’s the usual stats round up
Profit for week 35
Overall this puts our stats at:
Topcashback Tracked: £295.59
Topcashback Not Tracked: £291.84
Total excluding Untracked Topcashback: £5,001.90*
Total Including Untracked Topcashback : £5,293.74
The 250 to 5k Challenge results and stats
Now the challenge is complete I thought it might be interesting to share a brief round up some different stats (don’t worry I’ll try and not geek out too much)
Overall profit breakdown
I’m still surprised at how significant the Bingo contribution was to overall profits, when we started I expected Bookies & Bingo to be a more even 50:50 split. If we put more time into the challenge then I expect this would have been more even we left lots of money on the table as we focused on quick bingo offers rather than the bookie offers that required us to find close matches or place bets at specific times.
It’s interesting to see the contribution that Cashback made, this was primarily from topcashback but we did complete a few quidco offers as well, I just wish we’d not forgotten to check the cashback sites so often, there were probably 10 offers which would have given cashback if we’d remembered to check!
Most Profitable and Least Profitable sites
No real surprises here as 4 of the 5 most profitable sites are all 15network,
Film Bingo: £1,213.11
Cheers Bingo: £543.62
Rocket Bingo: £362.60
Brand New Bingo: 259.02
When it comes to the least profitable sites there’s few surprises as well with 2 of them being 15network (the variance effect). I should highlight that even though we lost money at all of them I’m confident that we played in the correct (profitable) way, we were just subject to variance. If we played enough reloads at these sites in the same way we would recoup the losses and make a profit.
Bingo on the Box: -121.08
Crazy Bingo -£150 (Virtue Fusion)
Elf Bingo – £137.92
Clucky Bingo -£133.59
£1000 at a time
Here’s a great illustration of the progress we made and shows how profits increase as you’re able to reinvest your funds.
The first £1,000 took 12 weeks, the 2nd only took 10 weeks and the remaining 3 x £1000 only took 4 or 5 weeks each!
Week by Week
My personal opinion is this is one of the most interesting graphs, I’ve mentioned in passing that I was travelling for some of the diary, although I was traveling for much of the early stages there was a 4 week period when I was in China and it was very hard to do any Advantage Gambling, this was primarily weeks 14-17 and you clearly see the effect it had on profits, the one week we did manage to do some we hit some terrible variance and bust out of pretty much every offer (week 16).
The other week that stands out is week 27, again we did very few offers and everything seemed to lose.
If you weren’t convinced before hopefully the fact we only lost money on 3 out of 35 weeks demonstrates that this is not just a lucky streak (and the mathematical proof all over the site)
Over the course of the challenge our bingo profit worked out as about 1/3 of the Bingo bonus awarded (33.2%), here we’ve plotted the actual profit against the EV. It’s a slightly unfair graph as the EV is based on the actual restults rather than any mathematical calculation but hopefully it demonstrates how expected value works, for most of the diary we were fluctuating around the EV line, until about the 160th offer where we had some decent luck which was then offset by a terrible run from the 180-210 offers.
I’ve had a few people ask me for my top tips, in no particular order I recommend:
- Signing up to Smarkets – 2% commission rather than Betfair 5% is a MASSIVE saving
- Sign up to Topcashback at the start, it’s free money and a great boost especially at the start. (side note: I recently got £75 cashback for my car insurance and £80 for an ISA, it’s not just good for Advantage Gambling)
- Sign up to 15network as soon as you can handle the variance (around £700-£1,000 float), the ongoing reload offers are a consistent income
- Keep records, I’ve no idea how I’d track it all without Ultimatcher, if you’ve not got it, just get it.
- Finally – double check everything (especially when backing and laying), you fix most errors if you spot them before the match starts, just place the reverse bet to cancel and error (i.e. Lay a Back Bet error, or Back a Lay bet error). You may lose a few pennies but that’s better than a potential large loss.
In all honesty I’m still not sure what to do next, so far I’m aware that I’ve not covered anything Spreadbetting related and also not really explored Casino offers, both of these are options for the future.
There are other Bingo companies that I believe could be made profitable and there’s loads of ongoing bookie offers. We could even do some exploration into things like trading (although that’s not risk free), Arb’ing/ Sharb’ing (Shop arbing).
Or I could explore some of the other things that I’ve considered but never got round to, prime examples being Forex and Binary trading, both are basically a bet on the movement of a currency or stock price, the companies offer massive bonues (4 figures plus) and I suspect they could be hedged against each other to eliminate the risk.
I’d love to hear your thoughts, if there’s anything here that stands out as being of interest I’ll certainly consider another diary!