What are risk free casino offers?

Risk free casino offers are becoming an increasingly popular form of casino offer whereby the casino will refund all / part of any losses that you incur. If you win you get to keep the winnings but if you lose the casino gives you a refund.

Casino rik free offers Bet at casino if win keep winnings if lose get refund

Are these Sign up bonuses?

Generally risk free casino bonuses are ongoing offers with some sites like William Hill offering these bonuses on an almost weekly basis, there is an exception which we’ll come onto shortly.

Is there a maximum refund amount for Casino risk free offers?

As with all Advantage Gambling there is a maximum amount that can be refunded as part of a casino risk free offer. The amount varies from offer to offer but typically will be £5-£20, although we have seen as much as £50 refunded previously.

Are all losses refunded?

Again the proportion of losses that is refunded varies, we tend to focus on those that offer 100% refunds, as it’s impossible to lose money with them. If you’re willing to take on a small amount of risk then the 20-50% refunds can be extremely profitable as it enables more offers to be completed and often the smaller refund %’s offer larger refund £’s meaning they can be more profitable in the long run.

We’ll shortly come onto how to calculate how profitable a risk free offer is but at a basic level if the % refund is greater than the house edge then it can be made profitable.

Refund percentage house edge

How to maximise profit?

Maximising profit on risk free casino offers is fairly simple when looked at theoretically, you want to do 1 bet that if it losses gives you the maximum refund but is also as high variance as possible.

Let’s use roulette as an example. If you’ve been offered a 100% refund of losses up to £5 you could bet in a number of different ways.

5 x £1 bets on red / black

1 x £5 bets on red / black

1 x £5 bet on 1 number

Different roulette bet options
Different roulette bet options

We’ll look at each of these statistically starting off with 5 x £1 bets on red / black,

5 x £1 bets on red / black

if you made this bet multiple times then on average you would expect to lose about 15p (based on 3% roulette HE) and because it’s multiple bets you would expect the variance to be low, you might win 5 in a row or lose 5 in a row but this is pretty unlikely most times you do this you will finish with £4 or £6. The times when you finish on £4 you will get £1 refunded (your losses) and the times you finish on £6 you’ve made £1.

Let’s assume that you do this 37 times,you’ll expect something like (note these are illustrative only):

1 x Gain £5  – +£5

5 x Gain £3 – +£15

12 x Gain £1 – + £12

13 x Lose £1 – 0 (losses refunded)

5 x Lose £3 – 0 (losses refunded)

1 x Lose £5 – 0 (losses refunded)

Overall +£32

5 £1 bets

1 x £5 Bet on Red / Black

This time we’ll look at what will happen if instead of 5 x £1 bets we make 1 x £5 bets. Again the EV based on 3% is to lose 15p per offer but this time we expect the variance to increase as it’s 1 larger bet.

Again let’s consider what happens if we place 1 x £5 bet 37 times. We can expect:

18 x Gain £5 – +£90

19 x Lose £5 – £0 (losses are refunded).

Overall +£90

1 £5 bet

1 x £5 bet on 1 number

Finally lets look at 1 x £5 bet on an individual number, again the EV is -15p per offer as the total amount wagered is the same but this time we’re going to significantly increase the variance by betting on a 1/37 chance rather than a ~1/2.

If we place a £5 bet on an individual number 37 times we can expect:

1 x gain £180 – +£180

36 x lose £5  – £0 (as losses are refunded)

Overall – +£180

ONe number

Comparing the 3 bets

Having looked at 3 different ways of betting for risk free offers it’s hopefully clear that increasing the variance of the bet increases the overall profitability it does also however increase the variance of your winnings. With the last example you could easily go 36 times or even more without winning then get 1 large win.

Our recommendation is to look at what your risk / reward level is, if roulette is allowed for your risk free offer then consider 1/3, 1/4, 1/5 or even 1/10 bets they give a much better return than the 1/2 bet but without the often harsh variance of a 1/36 bet.

What if the refund is not 100%?

If the refund is less than 100% then they can still be made profitable but you may have to accept higher variance to make them plus expected value.

The risk free offers that are not 100% are generally in the 20% – 50% range.

Using the 3 example bets above based on 20% refunds the results would be as follows:

5 x £1 bets on red / black

1 x Gain £5  – +£5

5 x Gain £3 – +£15

12 x Gain £1 – + £12

13 x Lose £1 – -£10.4 (13 x 20p losses refunded)

5 x Lose £3 – -£12 (5 x 60p losses refunded)

1 x Lose £5 – -4 (1 x £1 losses refunded)

Overall +£5.60

1 x £5 bet on red / black

18 x Gain £5 – +£90

19 x Lose £5 – £76 (19 x £1 refunds) .

Overall +£14

1 x £5 bet on individual number

1 x gain £180 – +£180

36 x lose £5  – £144 (36 x £1 refund)

Overall – +£36

We can clearly see here that the increasing the variance is essential to generate profit on the smaller % refund offers.

20 Refund
Increase variance increases profit

Do we have to bet on roulette for risk free casino offers?

The short answer is no it doesn’t have to be Roulette, we’ve used roulette as it’s easiest to understand but it doesn’t matter what you bet on, sometimes you’re forced to bet on a specific game (a slot machine). The main consideration is variance, as we talked about previously increasing variance increases profitability so even if you’re forced to bet on a specific slot machine 1 x £5 spin is going to be more profitable in the long run than 5 x £1 spins.

Large Variance large profit

 

Cashbacker.com

Cashbacker

We mentioned earlier that risk free / refund offers were mainly available as ongoing offers and were rarely offered as sign up bonuses. There is an exception to this.

Cashbacker.com are a fairly new site with an interesting concept, if you sign up to Casino, Bingo or Sports books through their site they give a refund on any losses at the site. The refund amount varies but can be as high as 15-20%.

We’ve already proven that 20% refunds are profitable so you should be able see that using cashbacker can make otherwise -ev offers profitable.

The key is to follow the approach we’ve outlined here, make your deposit, bet your full balance in 1 go on a high variance game, if it wins keep the winnings, if it losses then cashbacker will refund a proportion of the losses back to you.

Cashbacker Refunds are done monthly via moneybookers and in our experience we’ve always been paid promptly and efficiently.

Is there anything else that should be considered?

It’s always worth carefully checking the terms and conditions before taking part in any offer and risk free offers are no exception. Some sites will have a wagering requirement that must be completed before a refund can be withdrawn. Even if there is no WR I prefer to turn over any refund once before withdrawing it (generally on Blackjack).

Who are risk free offers suitable for?

The short answer is it depends on the offer. The most popular offers that give 100% refunds with no WR are a no brainer for anyone who’s interested in advantage gambling, they’re quick to do and can be a nice little earner. As the refund %’s decrease and WR’s increase they become higher risk.

I personally only do offers that give about a 50% refund once wagering requirements are taken into account. Slots have approximately a 5% house edge meaning that each time I have to turn over the refund I lose 5% of expected value this means that for instance a slots offer that gave 100% refund but then required a 5x turn over of the refund I’d value at 75% but would still be worth playing

Which sites give the best risk free offers?

 

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