Unlike bookmakers, with Casino’s we can’t cover all the outcomes, instead we have to rely on stacking the odds in our favour to beat the Casino. This approach means that we can’t guarantee a profit from any casino offers (there are a couple of exceptions) but what we can do is play in such a way that statistically over time we can expect to make a profit.
I’m not sure I understand…..
Let’s imagine that we can sign up to a casino, get a bonus then bet on the toss of a coin. If we were to deposit £10 and get a £10 bonus we would have a £20 balance. Casinos require certain wagering requirements to be met before any withdrawals can be made, for the purposes of this example we’ll work on a wagering requirement of £20.
The wagering requirement (WR) can be met anyway you want so you could make 20 x £1 bets or 1 x £20 bet. For illustrative purposes we’ll assume that we’re going to place 2 x £10 bets (and that if we win we double our money).
Placing 2 bets on the toss of a coin can result in one of the following outcomes happening:
Lose Lose results in us losing all of our money. As we deposited £10 that is all we can lose so we end up £10 down.
If we have 1 x win and 1 x lose we finish with £20, as we only deposited £10 this leaves us £10 up.
If we have 2 x wins then we finish with £30, as we only deposited £20 this leaves us £20 up.
Lose Lose = -£10
Lose Win = +£10
Win Lose = +£10
Win Win = +£20
Overall there are 4 different outcomes each with the same chance of happening, 3 of them result in a profit of £10-£20 while 1 of them results in a loss of £10.
If we were to do this offer 4 times we can expect to get each result once:
-10+10+10+20 = £30
Just playing 1 offer could result in a win or a lose but you can see that by playing multiple offers we can ensure we get a statistical advantage over the casino, this is the basic principle behind beating casino offers.
But you can’t bet on the toss of a coin at the Casino…
It would be lovely if you could bet on the toss of the coin at a casino but unfortunately this is not possible, all Casino games have a built in advantage so unlike in the example above you don’t double your money on an even chance game. Casinos have also got wise to advantage players and have increased the level of wagering that”s required before you can make a withdrawal.
If Casino’s know about these techniques how can the be profitable?
Although Casino’s know all the tricks that advantage players use they still offer attractive bonuses, most punters are unaware of advantage play techniques so end up losing money in the long run through undisciplined casino play.
Is it complicated to beat the Casino?
As with many things in life you can learn a little and get much of the benefits. Using Casino cashback offers you can easily make a few hundred pounds with almost no risk and no learning curve, these are a great starting point both in terms of learning and building your bankroll.
How much cash do I need to start with?
The Casino cashbaack page shows how to make £500 from a £20 deposit
What happens once I’ve completed the cashback offers or want to learn more?
Once you’ve completed the cashback offers there are plenty of other offers available, but they do get slightly more complicated. Before moving into them it’s important to understand a bit more about the different Casino games.
Does it matter which game I play?
All Casino games are built in such a way that the Casino has an advantage over the player.
This advantage varies depending on the game and is generally referred to in one of 2 ways, either as return to player (RTP) or as a house edge (HE). By analysing this advantage we can determine which game is best to play.
The main games we play and their very approximate house edges are as follows:
Blackjack – 0.5% HE (99.5% RTP)
Roulette – 3% HE (97% RTP)
Slots – 5-10% HE (90-95% RTP)
The easiest way to understand house edge is to imagine you bet £100 on each of these games. Sometimes you would win and sometimes you would lose but on average you would lose:
Blackjack – 50p per £100 played (0.5%)
Roulette – £3 per £100 played (3%)
Slots -£5-10 per £100 played. (5-10%)
What is expected value (ev)?
Expected value is the amount on average you can expect to win or lose based on the amount you spend and the game you choose.
By using the house edge we can calculate the expected value of our casino play.
For instance if we deposited £100 at a Casino, spent £100 on Blackjack then £100 on roulette and finally went back to Blackjaack and spent another £200 we can calculate how much on average we should have won / lost. In this case we should expect to lose on average £4.50 leaving us with on average £95.50.
This is based on:
£100 spent on Blackjack – 50p per £100 played = -50p
£100 spent on Roulette – £3 per £100 played = -£3
£200 spent on Blackjack – 50p per £100 played = -£1
Total = -£4.50
How to beat casinos?
The approach to beating casino bonuses can take a variety of forms, because of this, we’ve split them into 4 main categories:
1. Beginner offers, these generally involve small amounts of wagering and the use of cashback to almost guarantee a profit on every offer, there are limited numbers of these but they are easy and almost impossible to lose money.
2. Intermediate offers, these offers require an increased amount of wagering but can be completed playing one game (i.e. Blackjack only or slots only)
3. Advanced offers, these offers require a combination of games in order to meet the terms of the offer. These are not necessarily harder or higher risk just slightly more complicated to explain, i.e. using a similar approach to the bingo treble up approach prior to completing the wagering requirement
4. Expert offers, these involve high risk approaches that are highly profitable but also extremely high variance, these will generally require large spins on a slot machine or large bets on individual roulette numbers
Where to start with casino offers?
Our starting casino offers all rely on cash back to generate a profit. Our favourite cash back site is topcashback, if you’ve not already got an account click here to sign up. The other site that’s well worth checking out is quidco. Both of these sites offer cashback for signing up to a casino after clicking through a link on their site.
There is a limited number of offers available but they are definitely a good starting point and there is often £500-£1000 worth of cashback available. As the offers vary regularly it’s not worth us listing them all here, click here for an up to date list of casino offers on topcashback.
Do I only need to consider Expected Value?
As well as expected value you should also consider variance.
Variance is used to describe the fluctuations in results that you experience with different games and can be simply approximated by looking at the size of the biggest win possible. For instance if you’re playing Blackjack, your results will be fairly steady, you might lose a few hands then win a few hands but you wouldn’t expect huge losses without wins or huge wins without losses. Slots on the other hand, it’s quite possible to lose a lot in a short period of time or to get a large win in a short period of time.
Blackjack is low Variance
Slots are High Variance
There are a variety of things that influence variance, the main one being the type of game played, but in addition the style of play and the stake size can also have a significant impact.
As a general rule if you seek low variance games, you should:
- Use the minimum stake
- Play games that have a low variance i.e. Blackjack
- Play games in such a way that maximum win is minimised i.e. Roulette,bets on Black / Red have less variance than betting on an individual number (even though an individual number is higher EV).
The graph below shows the different in Roulette bets betting on Red & Black versus betting on an individual number. They both have the same expected value but the variance when betting on individual numbers is huge.
Check out our list of Casino offers to find profitable offers that are suited to your style of play. At this point it’s worth highlighting Video Poker and especially Jacks or Better (JoB), this has an extremely low house edge (close to Blackjack depending on which version it is) but has a significantly higher variance. Although many offers are profitable with JoB you should ensure you have a big enough bankroll and the right mindset before you use it to beat bonuses, the variance can be a killer especially for beginners who have limited bankroll or struggle with the losses emotionally.